Have you ever wondered how the Sports Betting “smart money” became the smart money? Do you wonder what the smart money does differently than the amateurs? The biggest difference between professional gamblers and the amateurs is that the pros don’t make stupid mistakes. Once you eliminate the stupid mistakes, you’ll be well on your way to making money like the pros.
1. Making Decisions Based on Emotions The number one reason people lose money betting on sports is because they make decisions based on emotions rather than being objective. The biggest example of this is people who bet on their home team favorite no matter what. It’s not unusual for the local line to be 3 points different than the lines at the online sports books.
2. Not Shopping Around for the Best Line People very often stick with their favorite bookie no matter what. Recently a friend of mine bet on the Steelers with his bookie even though his local bookie had the Steelers favored by 3 points while the vegas line was even. Don’t be loyal to your bookie if he’s not giving you the best odds.
3. Betting On Games Just Because They’re on TV How many times do you bet on a game because it’s on television and not because you have an edge? You should never bet for entertainment value. If you don’t have a clear edge, don’t bet.
4. Betting on Teams You Know Nothing About Sports betting is a competition. You are competing against the “smart money” whenever you place a bet on any game. If you really think you know more about East Wichita State than the “smart money” then go ahead and bet on them. If not, then stick to betting on teams you know.
5. Betting Too Much Money on Too Few Games This is probably the reason why most people get into money problems betting on games. The amateurs bet a large percentage of the money they can afford to lose on a small number of games each week. The pros spread their risk between many games in which they know they have an edge.
So there you have it, the 5 biggest mistakes made by amateur sports bettors. How many of these mistakes have you made in the past, or are you still making now? Just like the teams you’re betting on, the gambler that makes the least amount of mistakes will win more often than not.
Have you ever wondered how the sports betting “smart money” became the smart money? Do you wonder what the football betting smart money does differently than the amateurs?
To get an idea how a professional sports handicapper analyzes a game, let’s take a look at the analysis I did for my clients for the Fresno St. vs. Boise St. game: Fresno St. at Boise St. -23
The line on this game is “only” 23 because of Fresno St. past reputation as a half-decent team. This Fresno St. team is terrible, going 1-6 SU so far this season. More importantly, Boise St. is playing at home, and Boise St. is ranked 14th in the nation for good reason. They are unstoppable on offense, especially playing at home.
Here’s a scary stat for you to think about…
Boise St. is averaging 40 points per game this season, and Fresno St.’s defense is giving up on average a total of 32 points per game. In their last two games, Fresno St. has given up an average of 56 points per game.
Meanwhile, Boise St. has only scored under 36 points once all season. Boise St. has scored over 40 points in 6 games. Boise St. has averaged 46 points per game in their last three home games, and has average beating the spread by a full 7 points in their last three home games, even though they were favored by an average of 20 points per game. At the same time, Fresno St. has averaged about 13 points per game in their last three road games, scoring only 6, 12, and 20 points.
What this adds up to is a game in which you can expect Boise St. to score at least in the mid-40’s, and Fresno St. to score 20 points if they have a great game. In other words, if Boise St. just plays their average game, and Fresno St. plays a great game, the final score should fall near the line of 23. Here’s another way to look at it. Sometimes viewing games as a grid of possible outcomes, it becomes easier to see the high percentage play.
Here’s a table of possible results showing likely scores depending on whether or not each team has a “good” or “bad” game:
Boise St. Fresno St. Possible Final Score
Average Game Average Game 46-14
Bad game Bad game 36-10
Good game Good game 55-26
Bad game Good game 36-26
Good game Bad game 55-10
As you can see, there is only one scenario where Fresno St. has a chance to cover. That’s if they have a good game, and Boise St. has a bad game. All other scenarios point to Boise St. covering the 23 points. I.e., if Boise St. has a good game, Fresno St. has no chance to cover. Likewise, if Fresno St. has a bad game, they have no chance to cover.
Of course the models we use to determine the “possible” scores are proprietary statistical models that use weighted factors. It’s the same type of analysis used by financial traders to calculate probabilities. Keep in mind, we’re only playing probabilities, and even when the odds are in your favor, you can still lose. That’s why it’s important to manage risk by staying disciplined with your bet size.
Bottom line, Boise St. is likely to run up the score tonight and win going away, 52-17.
The actual final score was Boise St. 45, Fresno St. 21. Boise St. covered the spread by 1 point. However, what you don’t realize by just seeing the score is that Fresno St. was only able to make it close by returning an interception for a touchdown.
In other words, the game analysis was exactly right. Fresno St. had a “good” game and still couldn’t cover the 23 point spread. By repeating this type of analysis over and over, somebody serious about sports betting can make big money!
Plyaing Blackjack at a table in Las Vegas, Atlantics City, or even at a small rural casino can be an exciting and entertaining experience whether you’ve never played the game before or whether you’re a seasoned pro. However, for the first timers, a night spent at the blackjack table isn’t usually lucrative, and often ends with losing a sizable stack of chips. As they stumble through the basics of the game, their stack of chips gets smaller and smaller until it vanishes.
For the pros, the story is different. These are people who are so good at playing Blackjack that hey’re making money much faster than most amateurs lose it. What is an enjoyable but expensive recreation to others is another day at the office for a strategic player. How are they able to make so much money when you are not? The answer is simple. They’ve mastered the simple rules of Blackjack strategy, and you haven’t.
The secret that the casinos don’t want you to know is that it takes only a little bit of time and effort to learn these techniques yourself. With the proper guidance, you can quickly learn all you need to know to turn Blackjack into a money making operation. That is because, if playeed well, the odds in Blackjack actually favor the player, not the house. Casinos make money on the game simply because most people don’t know how to play Blackjack well.
First, you’ll have to know when to split, double down, and surrender. Surrendering is not an option at every casino, but it helps to know how to use it in case you find one where it is. If that sounded like Greek to you, don’t worry. It isn’t as complicated as it sounds. Splitting, doubling down, and surrendering are options available to you, the Blackjack player, that are not available to the dealer. That means that you’ve got at least two weapons that he or she doesn’t have! That sounds pretty good, but of course these weapons are only helpful once you know exactly when and how to make use of them.
In order to really win at Blackjack, you’ll also need to learn something about counting cards. This is the part that the casinos really don’t want you to know about, because if too many people figure out how to do it, those people will become such a draw on casino resources that they chould change the face of modern gambling houses. In fact, most of today’s casinos are banking on the hope that you won’t count cards at all. However, since counting cards basically consists of paying attention, it is not cheating, so there’s nothing they can do to stop you. You just need to continually be aware of what cards have already been dealt out. Again, with the right guidance, you can develop a system for keeping this information in your head. Then, using this information, you can make better guesses as to what cards you and the dealer are likely to be dealt, and you can make all your decisions accordingly. That’s really all there is to it. With the right stretegy, there’s nothing stopping you from making money hand over fist playing Blackjack!